Today, consumers in California can drive and lease the first wave of commercially available fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) in the U.S, and additional models are promised from several leading automakers in the next few months and years.
Of equal importance, today’s FCEV drivers can fill-up at any of nine hydrogen fueling stations in the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas, with 50 stations expected to be operational by the end of 2015.
What does this mean? For the fuel cell and hydrogen industry, and for those who will benefit from FCEVs, the time has come to talk about these vehicles in the present tense. A new game clock is running; the long-envisioned fuel cell future is indeed underway.
Fuel cells generate electricity through a hydrogen-based chemical process, not combustion. The process is silent, with no moving parts, and because there is no combustion there are no tailpipe emissions; the only byproducts are heat and water vapor.
FCEVs can run on hydrogen generated from renewable sources including biogas, wind and solar power, as well as from more traditional fuels like America’s abundant natural gas.
Moreover, as consumers in California are discovering, FCEVs are the only zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) technology that replicates today’s driving experience and convenience with a 300 to 400 miles or greater driving range and rapid fill-up of three to five minutes.
FCEVs SUPPORT ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT, ECONOMIC SECURITY
FCEVs will be part a diverse mix of vehicle types that allow American consumers to fulfill a wide range of driving needs. It only takes a quick look at recent headlines to see why the commercial arrival of FCEVs is so important for America.
With traditional energy-exporting regions of the world in turmoil, America is looking more and more to domestic energy sources. Hydrogen can be produced virtually anywhere in the country from many conventional and renewable energy sources. The nation already produces nine million metric tons of hydrogen annually, enough to fuel 30 to 40 million FCEVs.
Environmental concerns from clean air to global warming also help explain why FCEVs are so important. In 2013, governors of eight states signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreeing to put 3.3 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on the road within 12 years. More recently, NESCAUM (the nonprofit association of air quality agencies in the Northeast) developed a plan to begin implementing the ZEV vision defined by the MOU.
Fuel cells and hydrogen energy are the last clean energy technologies in which the U.S. is the global manufacturing leader. Nearly half of all jobs in the industry involve high-skill manufacturing, and when the infrastructure development, sales, and service jobs are added, the job potential is very significant.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Despite recent progress, the path to America’s hydrogen future faces many uncertainties, but most analysts agree the chief concern is how to develop the nation’s crucial hydrogen infrastructure. To help address this issue, in 2013 a public private collaboration, H2USA, was co-launched by the U.S. Department of Energy and industry. H2USA’s mission is to promote the commercial introduction and widespread adoption of FCEVs across America, and its members include state governments, automotive companies, fuel cell and hydrogen energy technology suppliers, energy companies, national laboratories, and trade associations.
Through the combined efforts of its members, H2USA is developing real-world approaches to address the technical, financial, and societal issues surrounding hydrogen infrastructure.
America faces a very bright fuel cell future, but it will take hard work and strong planning to fulfill the FCEV promise. Today FCEVs are no longer at the curb; they have entered the on-ramp and are preparing to merge into the mainstream of American driving.
And I can tell you, the FCEV industry is already thinking about the passing lane.
Morry Markowitz is President & Executive Director of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association, www.fchea.org
Safety has long been a hot topic in debates over increasing fuel efficiency, but this is less so today. In 2002, Senator Trent Lott warned of ‘purple people-eaters’ (read: silly-looking golf carts) taking over the market if CAFE standards were raised; Mr. Lott now drives a Mini Cooper. Effective occupant protections are proliferating, and U.S. vehicle fatalities continue to decline.
Manufacturers are improving fuel efficiency through a host of strategies that include reducing vehicle weight by removing unnecessary material and substituting lighter materials, which in turn permits downsizing of the engine and other components. Ford, for example, has indicated its intention to reduce the weight of its vehicles by 12 percent on average by 2020. As a rule of thumb, each 10 percent reduction in body weight can lower fuel consumption by 6 percent when component downsizing is taken into account. None of this means changing vehicle dimensions – there’s no need to sacrifice protective crush space to get a more fuel-efficient ride, especially when today’s CAFE standards require smaller vehicles to meet tighter fuel efficiency targets.
At this point, weight reduction is one of the least expensive approaches to saving fuel. Composites such as carbon fiber-reinforced polymers remain expensive for the time being, but lightweight steel, aluminum and other plastics are pressed into service in vehicle configurations that frequently yield net cost reductions. The need to retool and to master challenges such as joining dissimilar materials mean the transition to lighter vehicles is gradual. But there appear to be few obstacles to a long-term trend toward substantially lighter vehicles. The trend will be especially helpful to the adoption of electric vehicles, for which downweighting is critical due to its implications for sizing costly batteries.
There may be a limit to prudent downweighting, but as the fleet turns over and collisions between vehicles of widely disparate weights occur less frequently, any such limit would shift as well. Moreover, as drivers accept increasing automation of vehicle controls, in particular collision prevention, driving around surrounded by a couple tons of metal will begin to feel very 20th century.
I was changed by the 1990 introduction of the GM Impact electric car prototype at the Los Angeles Auto Show, then again by the amazing array of electric, hydrogen, and ‘green’ vehicles I witnessed at the 1991 Tokyo Motor Show. I knew that 'green' cars would be important. So, for 25 years now, this has been my focus at Green Car Journal and also at GreenCarJournal.com, plus an additional six years while feature editor at Motor Trend.
Covering this field for 25 years lends an invaluable perspective that’s important to understanding not only where we’ve been, but where we’re headed. There’s plenty of ‘green’ car news to share these days so it’s important to place it in context…and yes, that comes again with perspective and having been there while this all unfolded.
It has been enlightening to document the early research and development of the vehicles we take for granted today. While there is no crystal ball for predicting the automobile’s future, I’ve long been fascinated by researching patents for advanced and alternative fuel vehicle technologies because this does reveal what automakers and their technology suppliers have in mind for the years ahead.
Several decades ago, many of these vehicles and technologies were but ideas to potentially pursue, the subject of technology deep dives I attended, or opportunities that allowed driving advanced technology test mules on the track at automakers’ proving grounds.
Two of these experiences in the 1990s come readily to mind – driving a Japanese-market Toyota Crown sedan outfitted with an early gasoline-electric hybrid drive and a Geo Storm equipped with a prototype battery electric powertrain. These powerplants evolved to become the Hybrid Synergy Drive powering Toyota’s Prius and the electric drivetrain powering the GM EV1. The production versions were worlds better than the early prototype powertrains, lending the perspective to see just how far the technology had come.
Early developmental electric drive vehicles were often quirky and unexpectedly noisy in myriad ways, with high-pitched motor controller frequency noise and gear whine very apparent against a near-silent background devoid of internal combustion. The first natural gas vehicle prototypes often suffered from an annoying high-volume gaseous fuel injector clatter. Developmental hydrogen fuel cell vehicles sacrificed loads of space for large and cumbersome fuel cells and hydrogen storage. High efficiency diesel vehicles of decades past were unacceptably loud and emitted soot. Gasoline cars with high fuel economy were small, often lacking the creature comforts consumers expect and an illustration that sacrifice was required to achieve efficiency. Accomplishing extremely low tailpipe emissions often came at the expense of performance.
Drive an electric, natural gas, hydrogen fuel cell, high mpg gasoline, or high efficiency diesel personal-use vehicle today and they are quiet, usually quick, and ‘normal’ in all respects. A great many conventional internal combustion vehicles are now near-zero emission…not that you’d know it because they achieve this so seamlessly. We have great ‘green’ vehicles today because a lot has transpired over the past 25 years. Perspective.
I am confident that all of these vehicles, technologies, and fuels will play an important part in our motoring future. If the past 25 years are any indication, the vehicles we’ll be driving in the years ahead will be just amazing.
It is an exciting time to be involved with the auto industry, or to be in the market for a new car. The auto industry has responded splendidly to the challenge of new emission, fuel economy, and safety standards. The public is offered a greater than ever selection of vehicles with different powertrains, lightweight materials, hybrids, and electric drive vehicles across many platforms. We see increasing numbers of clean diesel vehicles and natural gas is making a resurgence, especially in the heavy-duty sector.
The positive response by the auto industry to the ever-tightening pollutant emission and fuel economy standards includes tactics such as the use of aluminum in the Ford F-150 and the increased use of carbon fiber by BMW, among many innovations introduced across many models and drivetrains. These evolutionary changes are a major tribute to the automobile engineers who are wringing out the most they can in efficiency and reduced emissions from gasoline and diesel engines. I view this evolutionary change as necessary, but not sufficient to meet our greenhouse gas goals by 2050.
New car ownership is currently down in Europe and is leveling off in the U.S. For global automotive manufacturers, however, this trend is offset by the dramatic growth in places like China and India. The potential for dramatic growth in the developing world is clearly evident: In the U.S., there are about 500 cars per thousand people, compared to about 60 and 20 in China and India, respectively.
How can these trends be reconciled with the environmental and health concerns due to climate change and adverse air quality in the developing world? The evidence for climate change accumulates by the day. Hazardous air quality in many major cities in China has drawn global attention, providing a visual reminder of how far the developed world has come and how much environmental protection needs to be accelerated in the developing world. Damaging air pollution is increasingly seen as a regional and even worldwide challenge. Dramatic economic growth in many developing countries is generating pollution that knows no boundaries. Air pollution from China, for example, fumigates Korea and Japan and is even transported across the Pacific to impact air quality in California and other Western states.
It will take a revolutionary change to provide personal mobility without unacceptable energy and environmental consequences. As a recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) document states, it is likely that a major shift to electric drive vehicles would be required in the next 20 to 30 years. Electric drive vehicles, coupled with renewable energy, can achieve essentially zero carbon and conventional pollutant emissions. The NAS report also predicted that the costs of both battery and fuel-cell electric vehicles would be less than advanced conventional vehicles in the 2035-2040 timeframe.
This transition will not occur overnight and we will be driving advanced conventional vehicles for many years to come. In a study for the International Council on Clean Transportation, Dr. David Greene calculated that the transition could take 10 to 15 years, requiring sustained investment in infrastructure and incentives in order to achieve sustained penetration. While this investment is not inexpensive, it is projected that the benefits of this investment will be 10 times greater than the costs.
So where do we stand today on electric vehicles? We are seeing an unprecedented number of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles across many drivetrains and models. There were about 96,000 plug-in electric vehicles sold or leased in the U.S. last year and more than 10 new PEV models are expected this year. While the sales fall short of some optimistic projections, it is an encouraging start after many years of more hope than delivery. The FC EV is expected to see significant growth after the initial limited introduction of fuel cells in the 2015-2017 timeframe by five major automobile companies.
It will take many years of sustained increasing penetration into new car sales to make this revolution a success. It is indeed a marathon and not a sprint. The challenge is how to ensure sustained sales of electric drive vehicles in the face of the many attributes of advanced technology conventional vehicles. Electric drive vehicle drivetrains have an affinity with the increasing amount of electronics on board the vehicle, which might ultimately yield very interesting, capable, and competitive vehicles.
I have little doubt that if we are serious about our energy, environmental, and greenhouse gas goals the revolution in technology will occur. All the major automobile companies seem to recognize this in their technology roadmap, which includes advanced conventional vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, battery and fuel cell electric vehicles.
In conclusion, the next 20 years promise to be equally as challenging and exciting as the last 20 years. I have little doubt that the automobile engineers are up to the task ahead, but whether we have the political fortitude to stay the course to achieve the necessary air pollution and GHG reductions is far less certain.
Dr. Alan Lloyd is President Emeritus of the nonprofit International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). He formerly served as Secretary of CalEPA and Chairman of the California Air Resources Board.
Electric drive vehicles of all types are increasingly in the news, often led by a near-nonstop focus on Tesla and its Model S, Model X, and planned Model 3 battery electric vehicles. People want electric cars. Some feel they need them, or more accurately, that we all need them. It has been so for quite some time.
I was one of those pushing hard for electric vehicles in the 1990s, driving prototypes on test tracks and limited production models on the highway as I shared their benefits on the pages of Green Car Journal and Motor Trend before that. It was an exciting time filled with hope that battery breakthroughs would come, bringing full-function EVs offering the same driving range as conventional vehicles.
Expectations were high that a public charging infrastructure would expand to make topping off batteries convenient. New ideas like 15-minute rapid charging and battery swap stations would allow drivers of all model EVs the ability to renew on-board energy in the time it takes to enjoy a cup of coffee, enabling them to head back on the road in short order with a full battery charge. Importantly, there was an expectation that EVs would be affordable, both to manufacture and to buy.
If only this unfolded as expected, automakers would commit to developing battery electric vehicles of all types to meet the needs of an emerging market. But things have not unfolded as expected.
California’s Zero Emission Vehicle mandate drove the electric car surge in the 1990s and it’s a huge influence today. While less refined than electric models we have now, electrics of the 1990s like the Toyota RAV4 EV, Nissan Altra minivan, and Honda EV Plus were quite well engineered. Then there was GM’s EV1. Sleek, sexy, and fun, it provided a daily driving experience unparalleled in the field, something I came to appreciate well during the year I drove an EV1.
The challenge then was the same as now: cost. The EV1 was so costly to build with such massive losses there was no business case for it to continue, and so it ended, as all other electric vehicle programs of the 1990s ended, for the same reason.
Early on, Volvo had the foresight to challenge the status quo. While evaluating ways to meet California’s impending ZEV mandate, the automaker concluded there was no way to do this realistically with a vehicle powered exclusively by batteries. In 1993, I test drove Volvo’s answer – its high-tech Environmental Concept Car (ECC) that added a high-speed turbine-generator to an electric drivetrain, thus creating what we now call a range-extended electric vehicle (think Chevy Volt). Sadly, the ECC’s high cost turbine-generator meant this innovative car never saw production. But it was at the leading edge of a movement that brought us hybrids and range-extended electric cars. Today, even BMW – a high-profile champion of electrics with its innovative i3 – understands the importance of offering a range-extended variant with a gas engine-generator for those who prefer the convenience of longer range.
In answer to the chorus of Tesla enthusiasts sure to raise their voices, I am aware that Tesla is committed to all-electric vehicles and the range of the $70,000-$95,000 Model S (before the addition of popular options) is substantially greater than its competitors. The coming Model X electric crossover is expected to be in the same aspirational category as the Model S with a price suitable for premium buyers. The company's planned Model 3, presumably a vehicle accessible to the masses at a price Tesla says will be about $35,000, is said to be three years away. That's a good thing since significant battery cost reductions will be required to make this Tesla-for-the-masses electric an affordable reality. Will three years be enough? Achieving battery cost reductions of the magnitude required is no sure bet and, as history has proved, battery technology advances move at their own pace.
One stock analyst recently quoted in a major newspaper article shared that Tesla has the ability to reduce battery costs by nearly half in the coming three to five years. Of course, the backstory is that this ‘ability’ is really but a ‘potential’ based on batteries that do not yet commercially exist. The past 25 years are replete with examples of major government and industry efforts aimed at developing energy-dense, safe, and affordable electric car batteries that deliver the range and cost expectations of auto manufacturers and consumers. Over these years there have been many incremental improvements in battery design and chemistry, a slew of failures, and pending ‘breakthroughs’ that have often been promoted only to have expectations and actual production sidelined for a plethora of reasons du jour.
As just one recent example, Panasonic's 2009 announcement of a lithium-ion battery breakthrough using a silicon alloy cathode was accompanied with a claim it would be manufactured in 2012. Many positive reports on electric vehicles take into account this very ‘breakthrough’ and others like it, with the considerable cost reductions that would follow. Yet, Panasonic did not begin mass production of this battery technology in 2012. According to a Panasonic spokesman, the company’s work on developing high-capacity battery cells using a silicon-based negative electrode is ongoing. Hopefully, developments like these will lead to the kind of mass production that could bring long-hoped-for battery performance and cost reductions. Perhaps this will come to pass with a mass effort by Tesla through its proposed $5 billion battery ‘Giga Factory,’ and perhaps not. But after 25 years of following battery development I have learned not to count on claims or development, but rather actual production and availability in the real world.
Tesla continues to develop its Supercharger quick-charge network and has potential plans for a battery swap system, both exclusively compatible with its own vehicles. An innovative and expanding infrastructure for battery electrics will be required for their ultimate success and these are very positive moves, although only for those with a Tesla product and not electric vehicle owners as a whole.
Battery electric vehicles priced at levels accessible to everyday buyers will continue to grapple with cost and marketing challenges until a battery breakthrough comes. This is illustrated by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles CEO Sergio Marchionne's comment earlier this year that the company is losing $14,000 on every one of the Fiat 500e electric cars it sells. Is it so different for other automakers also selling EVs in limited numbers and in constrained geographic locations? Not inconsequentially, to bolster the market battery electric cars will also require continuing federal and state incentives that combined typically total $10,000 or more. Hopefully, innovative thinking and real technology and cost breakthroughs will emerge in the years ahead.
In the meantime, gasoline-electric hybrids and plug-in hybrid models, plus range-extended electric vehicles that combine all-electric drive with an on-board electric generator, are providing functionality for everyone even as battery-only electric cars fight hard to establish their place in the automotive market. Let's hope that mass-market, nationally-available models like BMW's innovative i3 electric car change this dynamic sooner than later.
What does Silicon Valley, California have in common with Leipzig, Germany? They are both home to the most innovative, technically advanced, and possibly the most significant cars of the 21st century. The Tesla Model S and the BMW i3 are the cars that have defied experts who said they couldn't be built. While the key innovations for each of these cars are different, the innovative spirit is the same.
With the Model S, Tesla created a breakout electric car out of mostly existing technology. What Tesla did better than other new entrant was put it together, what Silicon Valley calls ‘systems integration,’ into a remarkable package. With obsessive attention to detail and high standards for performance and styling, Elon Musk has emerged as the Steve Jobs of the auto industry and proven countless naysayers wrong.
With the i3, BMW created an affordable car out of an innovative material, carbon fiber, or technically speaking, ‘carbon fiber reinforced plastic.’ BMW has found a way to apply its manufacturing know-how to bring what was once an exotic material for supercars and fighter jets to an everyday car. Driven to not make just a ‘me too’ electric car, Ulrich Kranz, the father of the i3, has created a breakthrough car that, like the Model S, is receiving enthusiastic reviews from auto critics for its performance.
In the 20th century, the automobile shaped the world. In the 21st century, the world will shape the automobile. Today’s cars are a major source of urban air pollution, global warming emissions, and oil dependency.
Fortunately, there are those in the auto industry – like Mr. Musk and Dr. Kranz – who understand it doesn’t have to be this way. Technology innovation combined with visionary leadership can reinvent the automobile. Tesla’s Model S and BMW’s i3 prove that being more in balance with today’s global realities does not mean sacrificing what makes the auto industry great.
Location-efficient affordable housing is key to sustainability. Kalos, the Greek word for ‘beautiful,’ may be the name of an 83 unit affordable housing project in San Diego, California, but it also describes the ‘green’ car capacity the developer, Community HousingWorks, plans for the project as part of its pursuit of LEED platinum certification. We have partnered with Community HousingWorks for nearly nine years now and helped the organization green the Kalos project starting a few years ago. This partnership builds on Global Green’s leadership to advance the greening of affordable housing in the U.S. over the last 18 years.
What’s remarkable about the Kalos development is not just that it is LEED Platinum. It is the inclusion of sustainable transit options. Car-sharing innovator Car2Go will park two electric-powered SmartCars at electric car charging stations. For a $35 one-time fee, Kalos residents will then have the opportunity to access an on-site alternative to first, or second, car ownership. Given that California car ownership runs over $9,000 per year, transportation costs are the second highest monthly expense for low-income families after rent. Car2go’s SmartCars will dramatically expand transportation access for Kalos residents.
The two publicly accessible electric vehicle charging stations are incorporated into the alley entrance of the project. ECOtality, a leader in clean electric transportation and storage technologies, will provide the stations – and federal incentives will further reduce costs.
The leadership of Community HousingWorks, and other organizations who look at sustainability beyond the building envelope, is important to helping improve the environment and lives of low income families. The benefits are many: providing a public amenity in the rapidly gentrifying North Park neighborhood; integrating green, sustainable means of transportation in a low-income housing complex; providing more options for residents who need them; and, serving as an example of green, affordable housing development. Kalos it truly is.
The evolution of the auto industry has been no less than amazing. I have witnessed this first-hand while documenting the advent of ‘green’ cars over two decades at Green Car Journal and at Motor Trend before that. We had electric cars back in the 1990s as we do now, battling for acceptance, with other alternative fuels also jockeying for position amid an expansive field of conventional vehicles. Things change, things stay the same…although the numbers have improved for electrics.
While not particularly ‘green’ in earlier years, the automotive field did show early inclinations toward efficiency, particularly after the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s and oil disruptions of the 1980s. That was short lived as gasoline disruptions eased and gas was again plentiful and cheap. It was the 1990s, though, when industry and consumer interest in ‘green’ kicked into high gear.
The advancement of ‘green’ vehicles has largely been driven by the State of California, which has long required new vehicles to run cleaner than those meeting federal standards, a nod to the state’s epic half-century battle with urban smog. California has led the way in recent times with its milestone low emission vehicle program and its requirements for ever-cleaner running cars meeting seemingly impossible emissions goals. All this led to more stringent federal standards and, along the way, internal combustion vehicles with near-zero tailpipe emissions. It also hastened the introduction of hybrids and battery electric cars.
Early on, interest in greener cars was primarily driven by concerns such as tailpipe emissions, air quality, and petroleum dependence, the latter focused on resource depletion, the environmental cost of petroleum production, and significant dependence on imported oil. But that has evolved. The release of multiple studies singling out CO2 emissions as a major contributor to climate change added yet another reason to demand cleaner cars, with carbon emissions now a focal point. New regulations requiring much higher fuel economy in the years ahead – accomplishing the multiple goals of reducing petroleum use and lowering CO2 emissions through higher efficiency – have helped change the dynamic as well, as have the shockingly high gas prices seen late last decade. Together, they created the perfect storm for ‘green’ cars.
The cumulative result of regulations and incentives – plus an auto industry increasingly looking at ‘green’ not only as a requirement but as a market advantage – is a field of greener choices at new car showrooms. We now have internal combustion vehicles with near-zero emissions. A growing number of vehicle models are hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric cars with a few gaseous fuel models as well. The vast majority, however, are conventional vehicles that are worlds better than those of the past – gasoline and clean diesel models that achieve 35, 40, and 45 mpg or better with 50+ mpg clearly on the horizon.
While electric vehicles are often the topic du jour, it’s evident that new car buyers want the ability to pick their path to a greener driving future, choosing the vehicle, powertrain, and fuel that make them comfortable in their daily journeys. It has been satisfying to witness the auto industry’s decades-long evolution that’s now enabling consumers to do just that.
We are all enamored by the advanced technologies at work in vehicles today. And why wouldn’t we be? The incredibly efficient cars we have today, and the even more efficient models coming in the years ahead, are testament to a process that combines ingenuity, market competitiveness, and government mandate in bringing ever more efficient vehicles to our highways.
It’s been a long and evolutionary process. I remember clearly when PZEV (Partial Zero Emission Vehicle) technology was first introduced in the early 1990s, a breakthrough that brought near-zero tailpipe emissions from gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles. That move was led by Honda and Nissan, with others quickly following. Then there were the first hybrids – Honda’s Insight and Toyota’s Prius – that arrived on our shores at the end of that decade. Both technologies brought incredible operating efficiencies that drastically reduced a vehicle’s emissions, increased fuel economy to unexpected levels, or both.
Of course, there were first-generation battery electric vehicles in the mid-1990s that foretold what would become possible years later. That first foray into EV marketing was deemed by many a failure, yet it set the stage for the advanced and truly impressive EVs we have today. Those vehicles may not yet be cost-competitive with conventionally powered vehicles due to very high battery costs, but that doesn’t diminish the genius engineering that’s brought them to today’s highways.
Even conventionally-powered cars today are achieving fuel efficiency levels approaching that of more technologically complex hybrids. Who would have imagined popular cars getting 40 mpg or better, like the Dodge Dart, Chevy Cruze, Mazda3, Ford Fiesta, and many more in a field that’s growing ever larger each year?
VW and Audi have proven that clean diesel technology can also achieve 40+ mpg fuel efficiency while providing press-you-back-in-your-seat performance, and importantly, doing this while meeting 50 state emissions criteria. That’s saying something considering diesel has historically had a tough go of it meeting increasingly stringent emissions standards in California and elsewhere. Yet, with elegant engineering by these automakers and their diesel technology supplier Bosch – plus this country’s move to low-sulfur diesel fuel late last decade – ‘clean’ diesel was born.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention natural gas vehicles. There was a time when quite a few automakers were exploring natural gas power in the U.S., but that faded and left Honda as the lone player in this market with its Civic Natural Gas sedan. Now others are joining in with dual-fuel natural gas pickups and vans, benefitting from advanced engine technologies, better natural gas tanks, and a sense that with increasing natural gas reserves in the U.S., demand for natural gas vehicles will grow. As Honda has shown with its Civic, it’s possible to operate on this alternative fuel while also netting admirable fuel efficiency.
All this advanced powertrain technology is important. It makes air quality and petroleum reduction goals achievable, even ones like the ethereal 54.5 mpg fleet fuel economy average requirement that looms for automakers by 2025. There’s no doubt that advanced technologies come at a cost and reaching a 54.5 mpg average will require the full range of efficiency technologies available, from better powerplants and transmissions to greater use of lightweight materials, aerodynamic design, and answers not yet apparent. But I’m betting we’ll get there in the most efficient way possible.
Ron Cogan is editor and publisher of Green Car Journal and editor of CarsOfChange.com
About a year ago, I gathered all our employees for a meeting and proceeded to make one bold statement, and an even bolder prediction. I shared my deep conviction that we were at the forefront of a historic opportunity within the automotive, trucking, and transportation industry. My prediction: We were on the verge of experiencing near vertical technological innovations within our industry and the next 10 years would usher in dramatic change. So far, so good!
Change and the rapidity of change are hard to predict, but not so when we can turn to the evidence around us and identify well-defined trends and plausible technological pathways. Never before has society experienced such spectacular innovations within the transportation industry. Just in the past five years, the industry has spiritually ushered in battery powered roadsters, plug-in-hybrids, natural gas powered vehicles, fuel-sipping new engine technologies, and never-before seen intelligent electronics andeighting materials. It is hard to believe companies are actually testing vehicles that will drive by themselves. Unreal! And here is the best part – technological breakthroughs and industry advancements will become even more pronounced. The transportation industry is poised to experience Moore's law of near vertical change. The foundation has been set. Everything can and will be challenged.
Traditional drivetrain technologies and fuels have quickly been put on notice. The internal combustion engine is being re-invented. Gasoline and diesel are no longer the only games in town. New powertrain technologies are multi-faceted and incorporate multiple energy sources. Transcending it all are alternative fuels such as natural gas, which is emerging as the smart choice to an environmentally conscious society, economically driven consumer, and job-creation minded country.
Natural gas vehicles will become as permanent as they will be fashionable. This is very predictable and exciting. Every macro-trend and technological advancement points to accelerated adoption of this cheaper, cleaner, and home-grown fuel to run our vehicles. A new generation of technology advancements enables radical growth and broad-scale adoption of natural gas vehicles - innovative direct-injection and engine technologies, ultra light-weight composite materials and advanced processes, unique adsorbent storage materials, and refueling methodologies never before seen or used. These innovations are setting the foundation for real change – a vertical change.
We can all let our imaginations run wild and dream about the future of automotive technology – but that future is now. We are in the midst of a historic transformation within this industry.
My company, Quantum Technologies, has been a leader in advancing alternative fuel storage technologies over the past two decades, hard at work innovating solutions to store compressed hydrogen at 10,000 psi for fuel cell vehicles or deploying high strength carbon composites for natural gas storage tanks. Case in point, we recently introduced the next generation fuel tanks (Q-Lite™) using ultra-lightweight and lower-cost materials. These advancements are impressive and enabling. While gaseous fuel storage technology has progressed steadily over the past 10 years, advancements over the next five years will be more remarkable. Dramatic change in any industry opens up an abundance of opportunities to shape the future.
The next generation compressed gas fuel storage systems will be defined by advances in materials, high precision manufacturing processes, and optimized topology with built-in diagnostics. Future compressed fuel tanks will be dematerialized, lighter in weight, and volumetrically efficient, storing gases in ways and pressures that were not possible five years ago.
My meeting with the employees was not overly long, but rather direct and pointed. Although they were keenly aware of our company's contribution to these emerging technologies and took pride in reflecting on their own pioneering accomplishments, I finished with one last thought: Companies that are merely reactionary to the technological changes may not survive. Successful companies will need to anticipate the future of change, shape it, and lead it!
Brian Olson is CEO of Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide, a company specializing in the development and production of natural gas storage systems and the integration of advanced vehicle control systems and drivetrains.
Lithium is a key component of lithium-ion battery packs that power electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid vehicles. A recent report from Pike Research forecast global sales of EV charging equipment will grow from 200,000 units sold in 2012 to nearly 2.4 million in 2020, representing a compound annual growth rate of 37%. With lithium a key component to the electric vehicle market, it is crucial that North America has adequate access to this critical element minus any geopolitical conflicts.
Credit Suisse has forecast a 10.3 percent annual growth in demand for lithium between 2009 and 2020. Global lithium demand has tripled over the past decade, and the global market price of lithium carbonate has tripled since 2001 to its current level of around $6,500 per ton.
An industrial research report by David & Company forecasts that the global market for lithium-ion batteries will increase to $43 billion by 2020 compared to an $11 billion level in 2010 with the primary catalyst the increased demand for electric cars.
Most lithium today is mined in Australia, Argentina, and Chile. The largest known deposit is in Bolivia but political turmoil has hampered production. In the United States, there is a Nevada mine with geo-thermal powerplants that extracts lithium as a by-product near the Salton Sea in Southern California. China remains the leading importer of lithium minerals and compounds and the leading producer of value-added lithium materials. My company’s 100 percent-owned Rose Tantalum-Lithium Project, in the James Bay region in Quebec, is slated to start production by 2014 and is free of any geopolitical turmoil. We will be a valued global source for conflict-free Tantalum.
High purity lithium is required for a variety of electrical storage needs – from batteries that power electric and hybrid vehicles or provide large scale storage of renewable and conventionally produced power, to the batteries that power electronics including those found in smart phones, laptops, and gaming systems. Having proven a purity of 99.9 percent for our lithium makes our Rose Tantalum-Lithium project one of only five deposits globally that meet the rigorous specifications for lithium-ion batteries.
It is clear we have to ensure that North America does not lose the global war on being the leader in green energy solutions, which includes access to high quality conflict-free lithium. The war of the new millennium is being fought on a monetary and labor scale across the globe, with China the market leader for rare earth metals with about 97% of the world’s supply.
Next on China’s plate is renewable energy integration. Ironically, as environmental pollution in the People’s Republic of China runs rampant, the country has steadfastly focused on securing leadership status in the renewable industry. The Chinese government has set a goal of China securing 11.4 percent of its energy from non-fossil sources by the end of 2015, up from 8 percent today.
The U.S. government’s commitment to supporting both the renewable energy and electric vehicle industries underlines the need for the rapid development of rechargeable batteries, and this has thrown the spotlight on domestic lithium supplies.
It is critical that North Americans understand the importance of assuming a leader stake in the alternative energy market. As my company possesses the key critical elements crucial to the electric battery sector, we are committed to being an active and valued voice in implementing change.
Jean-Sébastien Lavallée, P.Geo, is President and Chief Executive Officer of Critical Elements Corp.
For most Americans, our transportation choices are limited to the fuels offered at the local gas station. For generations, regular gas stations served our needs pretty well, but America’s transportation needs are changing. Every day we learn about new choices in alternative fuel vehicles, advancements in vehicle efficiency, and new, cleaner types of fuel, so it’s bewildering that gas stations haven’t kept up with these changes. Gas stations today offer a fundamental lack of choices and are no longer in step with the way Americans seek to move about their lives.
With 160,000 fueling locations across America, gas stations outnumber McDonalds, Burger King, Subway, Starbucks, and Taco Bell…combined. But as consumers’ transportation needs change, there is no effort by Big Oil to change with them. Fifty percent of the cars in Big Three showrooms are now capable of being powered by something besides oil. Domestically produced renewable fuels have surpassed imports from Saudi Arabia, and gas consumption is at a 10-year low – yet gas prices remain at all time record levels. Mobility is transforming in other ways with ride sharing, public transit, cycling, and telecommuting all on the rise. Yet still no change in our fueling infrastructure.
At Propel, we have created a new vision for the way gas stations serve the mobility needs of a community, one that meets the changing habits of America’s drivers. Earlier this year, we launched our first ‘Clean Mobility Center’ in Fullerton, California, to offer consumers new, more sustainable, domestic fuel and transportation choices that are more in line with their values, and also reduce our collective impact on the environment while supporting local economies and decreasing our nation’s reliance on foreign oil.
Our Clean Mobility Centers provide a distinctly different customer fueling experience, offering a full range of high performance renewable fuels (Flex Fuel E85, biodiesel) alongside the conventional gasoline that drivers use today. More than 17 million cars on American roads can fuel with something besides oil, and for those that can’t, we provide drivers an opportunity to be part of the solution and a movement towards clean mobility.
With a focus beyond fuel, our Clean Mobility Centers also offer a series of unique, community-friendly features not found at any other gas station in the nation. To maximize fuel economy, we offer free air to fill-up vehicle tires and we have installed bike repair stations so cyclists can tune up and fix bikes along their route. Additionally we have kiosks that provide local bus and other mass transit maps and routes, along with information about rideshare opportunities. Finally, we have two new features at the fueling island: recycling on the go, and the nation’s first carbon offset program, which for only $1 per fill-up allows drivers to offset the carbon emissions from their purchase right at the pump and support local clean energy projects.
Looking forward, as new, even more sustainable fuels and transportation options come to market, we’ll use the infrastructure we’re building today to offer new choices. In fact, we’re actively exploring options such as renewable gasoline and diesel, cellulosic fuels, algae-based fuels, natural gas, EV charging, and car sharing.
Just as we’ve seen in other industries, such as manufacturing labor, fair trade practices, or organic agriculture, consumer choice can be the biggest force for change in our society. At the pump, consumers can now vote with their wallets and choose a fuel company that better aligns with their values and interests. No matter what type of car they drive, consumers can use our new stations and learn about cleaner mobility options along the way. With 160,000 outlets and regular contact with customers, the fueling industry is in a unique position to engage consumers and lead them to a brighter future. So far, though, our industry hasn’t shown much leadership. America’s transportation needs are changing, and we believe it’s time our gas stations changed, too.
Matt Horton is CEO of Propel Fuels, www.propelfuels.com
The Environmental Protection Agency is proposing ‘Tier 3’ cleaner tailpipe standards that will significantly reduce smog-forming pollution from vehicles. These standards will save lives, reduce asthma attacks, and give Americans cleaner air to breathe.
Today, more than one in three Americans live where the air is sometimes unsafe to breathe, due in part to pollution from passenger cars and trucks. The proposed standards would reduce air pollution by requiring refiners to produce lower sulfur gasoline and automakers to use advanced pollution control technology.
Lower sulfur gasoline is essential for advanced vehicle technology to work with maximum efficiency. For example, hybrids, gasoline direct injection, and turbocharged engines reduce waste heat. At lower temperatures, pollution control technology can’t work at maximum efficiency, resulting in increased pollution.
These cleaner tailpipe standards will provide tremendous health benefits. According to the EPA, less pollution will prevent 2,500 premature deaths, 22,000 asthma attacks, and 3,200 hospital visits each year. Automakers, auto workers, public health organizations, and environmental groups all support these standards.
Only the oil industry stands in opposition, fighting anything that would force them to clean up their act. However, studies have shown cleaner-burning gasoline, and the health benefits that come with it, will cost less than one penny per gallon. As the EPA moves forward with Tier 3 cleaner tailpipe standards, we can all look forward to cleaner cars and cleaner air.
Due to our rigorous vehicle test schedule here at Green Car Journal, we are very aware of the fluctuating pattern of gas prices. Fuel economy testing requires regular and sometimes daily fill-ups. This past week was telling. The price of leaded regular shot up more than 30 cents in a matter of five days. Premium fuel is once again over $4.00 per gallon.
Regardless of the price fluctuation’s root cause, the end effect is the numbing of consumer reaction and outcry. I remember the conversations across the gas island at my regular station when gas prices topped $3.00 per gallon. The reaction was even greater when gas first topped $4 per gallon.
When consumers cut back on driving and fuel consumption, the price generally retreats, but generally not quite to the same level it was at before the increase. The pattern repeats in a general upward trend until the average consumer now thinks that gasoline prices below a certain threshold like $4.00 seems like a bargain. Over time, consumers are desensitized to the price at the pump as it edges upward.
As fuel prices reach new highs, vehicle-buying habits certainly change. Fuel economy becomes a priority. Hybrids and fuel-efficient models move quickly. When the market can’t sustain higher prices, however, and prices slump, fuel economy lessons are often forgotten. Vehicle purchases tend to revert back to less efficient models. All the while, the long-term trend is that the price of transportation takes an ever-larger bite out of the household budget.
Some feel that higher fuel prices are a good thing, forcing consumers into more fuel-efficient transportation choices. I’ve never agreed with that stance because high gasoline prices hit lower income consumers the hardest. When the necessary work commute takes an extra twenty bucks each week, many simply must cut back on other essentials. Those living on a very tight budget often can’t afford to trade up to a more fuel-efficient vehicle.
As I’ve noted before, my biggest gripe with higher fuel prices is less apparent but has a widespread impact. When the price of fuel goes up, nearly all goods and services will cost more. Farmers rely on diesel tractors to cultivate and harvest the food we eat. Transporting food and products we use on a daily basis requires diesel fuel. Nearly every product you use each day is moved multiple times by a diesel truck. From moving raw materials to the manufacturer to finished products cycled through the distribution chain, everything becomes more expensive. These are hard costs of doing business that can’t be absorbed and must be passed along to the end consumer in the form of higher prices for the essentials of our modern life.
I am fortunate to test and evaluate some of the most fuel-efficient vehicles in the world on a regular basis. As a benchmark, our family go-to vehicle is a 2003 Honda Pilot. The seven-passenger Pilot has been a trusted all-mission transport that simply does everything well. From hauling a pack of home school kids through winter weather conditions to moving our youngest into a college dorm, the Pilot continues to deliver great performance. Now, with over 150,000 miles on the odometer, we continue to average 21 mpg. In the 10 years we’ve owned the Pilot, however, the price to fill the tank has more than doubled. The price of anything we rely on so heavily doubling in one decade is a reality check that can’t be ignored.
Todd Kaho is executive editor of Green Car Journal
It is said that today’s teenagers are more interested in cell phones than in cars. I’m not sure that’s a good thing, but it does signal a kind of dematerialization that could create major opportunities for sustainable transportation. The triumph of the digital over the mechanical certainly has big implications for the design and use of vehicles.
First, there are the electronics-based improvements to the vehicle itself. Computer control of engines, drivetrain, and auxiliaries is a major enabler of today’s rapid rise in fuel economy, though perhaps a growing obstacle to do-it-yourself car repair. Then there’s the explosion in onboard information and communications technology, which is now a focus of vehicle marketing, especially to younger buyers. These trends feed a car aesthetic of smart and sleek, rather than the pursuit of raw power that dominated the ads until recently.
Moreover, cars increasingly will fit into a virtual, just-in-time lifestyle. That might mean, for example, major growth in on-demand transit services, home delivery, and car-sharing. More broadly, it will probably mean thinking about how to do what you need to do in a very different way. You’ll use a personal logistics app to optimize in real time the execution of the day’s activities with respect to time, money, and comfort. And maybe you will choose a new house based in part on the resources required to get where you want to go.
Matt Horton’s column in the Fall 2012 issue of Green Car Journal captured the spirit of this new vision of mobility. He described an all-purpose service station that provides everything a person on the move needs, whatever the technology, fuel, or mode of transport. Local governments, entrepreneurs, and advocates would do well to stay ahead of this changing mobility landscape and help to create a streamlined, efficient transportation system through the application of advanced technology.
Therese Langer is Transportation Program Director of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, www.ACEEE.org
It’s the beginning of awards season in Hollywood as I write this and we are in the thick of making plans for our annual Pre-Oscar party.
It’s been almost 10 years since we launched the Global Green USA ‘Red Carpet, Green Cars’ campaign to help make hybrid and fuel-efficient cars fun and sexy. Once again, we will be highlighting the virtues of green cars at our Pre-Oscar event in Hollywood. And each year the audience is even more receptive and excited for change.
Ten years ago, many of us were the only ones on our blocks driving green cars. We received a lot of press attention back then for shuttling Hollywood influencers to the Academy Awards – in the first-generation Prius, among other green cars – and to the Emmy Awards in hybrid-electric buses.
Now, of course, we don’t really need to introduce the public to vehicles that are better for the environment. The Prius was named the best-selling car in California in 2012 and the third-best selling car in the world. And there’s not enough room in this column to list the actors, athletes, and other influencers who drive hybrid or electric cars.
The downturn in the economy certainly played a role in increasing the profile of green cars, as record-setting high gas prices convinced people to choose vehicles that are more fuel-efficient and wallet-friendly. Consumers have also naturally started making more environmentally friendly lifestyle choices in other areas of their lives – just take a look at the rise in organic food choices at mainstream grocery stores as an example.
Personal choices we make to curb greenhouse gas emissions are to be applauded, but they are not enough. Now, we need more action from elected leaders to make clean our roads.
Again, Hollywood – all of California, really – is leading the way with stricter emission standards for vehicles. California’s Advanced Clean Cars Program will impose very high emissions standards on cars powered by gasoline. We need other states to take California’s lead and make changes to make green cars the norm.
Matt Petersen is President and CEO of Global Green USA, the American arm of Green Cross International
While Washington was gripped by negotiations over the fiscal cliff, California got a welcome dose of good news. On December 27, the Environmental Protection Agency granted California a waiver to move forward with its Advanced Clean Cars program.
Currently, vehicles are responsible for roughly one-fifth of the nation’s smog-forming pollution, and are the second leading source of carbon pollution. According to the American Lung Association, 127 million people (41 percent of the U.S. population) live in areas where the air is not healthy to breathe. With pollution standards functionally equivalent to recently adopted national standards, California’s program will reduce smog-forming pollution from new vehicles roughly 75 percent by 2025 and significantly reduce carbon pollution, improving air quality and public health.
Importantly, the state’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) standard will speed the adoption of battery electric and fuel cell vehicles. These standards are an essential part of California’s plans to meet its air pollution goals. Now, 13 states and the District of Columbia that have previously adopted some or all of California’s standards are updating their standards to match California’s.
As the vehicles featured in Green Car Journal can attest, these standards are feasible. Alongside cleaner conventional vehicles, more plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles are hitting the roads than ever before and consumers are enjoying the savings at the pump that come with more efficient vehicles. With its waiver in place, California’s Clean Car program will help ensure that our cars continue to get cleaner.
Jesse Prentice-Dunn is the Washington Representative for Sierra Club’s Green Transportation Campaign
In the wake of the tragedy of Hurricane Sandy, the government released its findings that last year was the hottest on record for the continental U.S. While exact causes are difficult to pin down, what we do know is that just like the unprecedented droughts, flooding, and heat we all experienced this past year, storms like Hurricane Sandy are what global warming looks like.
It’s unfortunate that oil companies, coal companies, and their allies have been successful in stalling a common sense, comprehensive national solution to controlling carbon pollution.
But there is good news. Over the last four years, this country has made huge, transformative strides in cleaning up tailpipe carbon emissions that account for about one fifth of the nation’s carbon pollution. Last fall, the Obama Administration adopted final rules, with the support of the auto industry, UAW, and environmental leaders, requiring the equivalent of 54.5 mpg by 2025.
This doubling of fuel efficiency standards is the biggest action this country has ever taken to cut oil dependency and carbon pollution. By 2030, doubling fuel efficiency will reduce carbon pollution by the equivalent of 85 million cars or 140 coal power plants.
Because of the phasing in of the standards begun in 2012, they are already working to cut carbon pollution and fuel bills. In fact, 2012 set a record of 23.8 mpg for the average fuel efficiency of new autos sold. Compared to the previous model year, hybrid sales grew by 55 percent and plug-in electric vehicles sales tripled.
Now, 2013 promises to be even better with automakers offering at least six more hybrid models and eight more plug-in vehicle offerings than last year. A wave of higher mpg midsize cars, getting up to 38 mpg on the highway, will be launched this year.
By supporting stronger standards and putting clean car offerings on the fast track, the American auto industry is doing its part to avert dangerous climate change. Let’s hope other industries follow their lead.
Roland Hwang is Transportation Program Director of the Natural Resources Defense Council
