Well, this should be no surprise. Reuters reports what we’ve suspected all along because there’s a long history of this happening: Low gasoline prices are negatively impacting the sale of alternative fuel vehicles including those running on natural gas and electricity.

Not surprisingly, with lower gasoline prices comes a decided uptick in purchases of larger and lower efficiency vehicles, especially SUVs. Beyond personal transportation, the commercial sector is also being hit hard because the cost differential involved in buying large natural gas trucks presently fails to pencil out well compared to conventionally powered models.

Is this a trend? Only short term, really. Green Car Journal editors have noted such occurrences over the past two decades and the trend has always ebbed and flowed with varying fuel prices, incentives, and other factors. While the long-term prospects for battery electric vehicles hinge on lower cost batteries in the future, hybrids and high efficiency conventional vehicles are here to stay.

It is an exciting time to be involved with the auto industry, or to be in the market for a new car. The auto industry has responded splendidly to the challenge of new emission, fuel economy, and safety standards. The public is offered a greater than ever selection of vehicles with different powertrains, lightweight materials, hybrids, and electric drive vehicles across many platforms. We see increasing numbers of clean diesel vehicles and natural gas is making a resurgence, especially in the heavy-duty sector.

The positive response by the auto industry to the ever-tightening pollutant emission and fuel economy standards includes tactics such as the use of aluminum in the Ford F-150 and the increased use of carbon fiber by BMW, among many innovations introduced across many models and drivetrains. These evolutionary changes are a major tribute to the automobile engineers who are wringing out the most they can in efficiency and reduced emissions from gasoline and diesel engines. I view this evolutionary change as necessary, but not sufficient to meet our greenhouse gas goals by 2050.

New car ownership is currently down in Europe and is leveling off in the U.S. For global automotive manufacturers, however, this trend is offset by the dramatic growth in places like China and India. The potential for dramatic growth in the developing world is clearly evident: In the U.S., there are about 500 cars per thousand people, compared to about 60 and 20 in China and India, respectively.

How can these trends be reconciled with the environmental and health concerns due to climate change and adverse air quality in the developing world? The evidence for climate change accumulates by the day. Hazardous air quality in many major cities in China has drawn global attention, providing a visual reminder of how far the developed world has come and how much environmental protection needs to be accelerated in the developing world. Damaging air pollution is increasingly seen as a regional and even worldwide challenge. Dramatic economic growth in many developing countries is generating pollution that knows no boundaries. Air pollution from China, for example, fumigates Korea and Japan and is even transported across the Pacific to impact air quality in California and other Western states.

It will take a revolutionary change to provide personal mobility without unacceptable energy and environmental consequences. As a recent National Academy of Sciences (NAS) document states, it is likely that a major shift to electric drive vehicles would be required in the next 20 to 30 years. Electric drive vehicles, coupled with renewable energy, can achieve essentially zero carbon and conventional pollutant emissions. The NAS report also predicted that the costs of both battery and fuel-cell electric vehicles would be less than advanced conventional vehicles in the 2035-2040 timeframe.

This transition will not occur overnight and we will be driving advanced conventional vehicles for many years to come. In a study for the International Council on Clean Transportation, Dr. David Greene calculated that the transition could take 10 to 15 years, requiring sustained investment in infrastructure and incentives in order to achieve sustained penetration. While this investment is not inexpensive, it is projected that the benefits of this investment will be 10 times greater than the costs.

So where do we stand today on electric vehicles? We are seeing an unprecedented number of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles across many drivetrains and models. There were about 96,000 plug-in electric vehicles sold or leased in the U.S. last year and more than 10 new PEV models are expected this year. While the sales fall short of some optimistic projections, it is an encouraging start after many years of more hope than delivery. The FC EV is expected to see significant growth after the initial limited introduction of fuel cells in the 2015-2017 timeframe by five major automobile companies.

It will take many years of sustained increasing penetration into new car sales to make this revolution a success. It is indeed a marathon and not a sprint. The challenge is how to ensure sustained sales of electric drive vehicles in the face of the many attributes of advanced technology conventional vehicles.  Electric drive vehicle drivetrains have an affinity with the increasing amount of electronics on board the vehicle, which might ultimately yield very interesting, capable, and competitive vehicles.

I have little doubt that if we are serious about our energy, environmental, and greenhouse gas goals the revolution in technology will occur. All the major automobile companies seem to recognize this in their technology roadmap, which includes advanced conventional vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, battery and fuel cell electric vehicles.

In conclusion, the next 20 years promise to be equally as challenging and exciting as the last 20 years. I have little doubt that the automobile engineers are up to the task ahead, but whether we have the political fortitude to stay the course to achieve the necessary air pollution and GHG reductions is far less certain.

Dr. Alan Lloyd is President Emeritus of the nonprofit International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). He formerly served as Secretary of CalEPA and Chairman of the California Air Resources Board.

 

Electric drive vehicles of all types are increasingly in the news, often led by a near-nonstop focus on Tesla and its Model S, Model X, and planned Model 3 battery electric vehicles. People want electric cars. Some feel they need them, or more accurately, that we all need them. It has been so for quite some time.

I was one of those pushing hard for electric vehicles in the 1990s, driving prototypes on test tracks and limited production models on the highway as I shared their benefits on the pages of Green Car Journal and Motor Trend before that. It was an exciting time filled with hope that battery breakthroughs would come, bringing full-function EVs offering the same driving range as conventional vehicles.

Expectations were high that a public charging infrastructure would expand to make topping off batteries convenient. New ideas like 15-minute rapid charging and battery swap stations would allow drivers of all model EVs the ability to renew on-board energy in the time it takes to enjoy a cup of coffee, enabling them to head back on the road in short order with a full battery charge. Importantly, there was an expectation that EVs would be affordable, both to manufacture and to buy.

If only this unfolded as expected, automakers would commit to developing battery electric vehicles of all types to meet the needs of an emerging market. But things have not unfolded as expected.

California’s Zero Emission Vehicle mandate drove the electric car surge in the 1990s and it’s a huge influence today. While less refined than electric models we have now, electrics of the 1990s like the Toyota RAV4 EV, Nissan Altra minivan, and Honda EV Plus were quite well engineered. Then there was GM’s EV1. Sleek, sexy, and fun, it provided a daily driving experience unparalleled in the field, something I came to appreciate well during the year I drove an EV1.

The challenge then was the same as now: cost. The EV1 was so costly to build with such massive losses there was no business case for it to continue, and so it ended, as all other electric vehicle programs of the 1990s ended, for the same reason.

Early on, Volvo had the foresight to challenge the status quo. While evaluating ways to meet California’s impending ZEV mandate, the automaker concluded there was no way to do this realistically with a vehicle powered exclusively by batteries. In 1993, I test drove Volvo’s answer – its high-tech Environmental Concept Car (ECC) that added a high-speed turbine-generator to an electric drivetrain, thus creating what we now call a range-extended electric vehicle (think Chevy Volt). Sadly, the ECC’s high cost turbine-generator meant this innovative car never saw production. But it was at the leading edge of a movement that brought us hybrids and range-extended electric cars. Today, even BMW – a high-profile champion of electrics with its innovative  i3 – understands the importance of offering a range-extended variant with a gas engine-generator for those who prefer the convenience of longer range.

In answer to the chorus of Tesla enthusiasts sure to raise their voices, I am aware that Tesla is committed to all-electric vehicles and the range of the $70,000-$95,000 Model S (before the addition of popular options) is substantially greater than its competitors. The coming Model X electric crossover is expected to be in the same aspirational category as the Model S with a price suitable for premium buyers. The company's planned Model 3, presumably a vehicle accessible to the masses at a price Tesla says will be about $35,000, is said to be three years away. That's a good thing since significant battery cost reductions will be required to make this Tesla-for-the-masses electric an affordable reality. Will three years be enough? Achieving battery cost reductions of the magnitude required is no sure bet and, as history has proved, battery technology advances move at their own pace.

One stock analyst recently quoted in a major newspaper article shared that Tesla has the ability to reduce battery costs by nearly half in the coming three to five years. Of course, the backstory is that this ‘ability’ is really but a ‘potential’ based on batteries that do not yet commercially exist. The past 25 years are replete with examples of major government and industry efforts aimed at developing energy-dense, safe, and affordable electric car batteries that deliver the range and cost expectations of auto manufacturers and consumers. Over these years there have been many incremental improvements in battery design and chemistry, a slew of failures, and pending ‘breakthroughs’ that have often been promoted only to have expectations and actual production sidelined for a plethora of  reasons du jour.

As just one recent example, Panasonic's 2009 announcement of a lithium-ion battery breakthrough using a silicon alloy cathode was accompanied with a claim it would be manufactured in 2012. Many positive reports on electric vehicles take into account this very ‘breakthrough’ and others like it, with the considerable cost reductions that would follow. Yet, Panasonic did not begin mass production of this battery technology in 2012. According to a Panasonic spokesman, the company’s work on developing high-capacity battery cells using a silicon-based negative electrode is ongoing. Hopefully,  developments like these will lead to the kind of mass production that could bring long-hoped-for battery performance and cost reductions. Perhaps this will come to pass with a mass effort by Tesla through its proposed $5 billion battery ‘Giga Factory,’ and perhaps not. But after 25 years of following battery development I have learned not to count on claims or development, but rather actual production and availability in the real world.

Tesla continues to develop its Supercharger quick-charge network and has potential plans for a battery swap system, both exclusively compatible with its own vehicles. An innovative and expanding infrastructure for battery electrics will be required for their ultimate success and these are very positive moves, although only for those with a Tesla product and not electric vehicle owners as a whole.

Battery electric vehicles priced at levels accessible to everyday buyers will continue to grapple with cost and marketing challenges until a battery breakthrough comes. This is illustrated by Fiat Chrysler Automobiles CEO Sergio Marchionne's comment earlier this year that the company is losing $14,000 on every one of the Fiat 500e electric cars it sells. Is it so different for other automakers also selling EVs in limited numbers and in constrained geographic locations? Not inconsequentially, to bolster the market battery electric cars will also require continuing federal and state incentives that combined typically total $10,000 or more. Hopefully, innovative thinking and real technology and cost breakthroughs will emerge in the years ahead.

In the meantime, gasoline-electric hybrids and plug-in hybrid models, plus range-extended electric vehicles that combine all-electric drive with an on-board electric generator, are providing functionality for everyone even as battery-only electric cars fight hard to establish their place in the automotive market. Let's hope that mass-market, nationally-available models like BMW's innovative i3 electric car change this dynamic sooner than later.

The thought of vehicle-integrated solar cells taking an active role in powering an electric car remains a tantalizing prospect. In fact, the use of solar panels on the roof of a vehicle is not a new idea. It’s been shown that ultra-lightweight solar race cars with solar-packed body shells can actually drive exclusively on the power of the sun. In real life, though, this doesn’t work with production cars weighing thousands of pounds that need to carry varying numbers of passengers and weight, provide the acceleration needed for safe motoring, and in general perform all the functions required of a modern car.

Disappointing to some, car-mounted solar panels typically generate just enough electricity to operate a fan to keep the interior of a parked car cool on a hot day, falling fall far short of providing the kind of energy needed for drive motors. Lowering cabin temperatures in a parked EV does serve a purpose since less energy is needed to cool the passenger space during the early part of a drive. That means less of a drain on batteries needed to power an electric vehicle. In this case, every little bit helps.

There are other answers and solar charging does take different forms. Plenty of EV owners offset their car’s use of electricity through large solar panels on their homes. Many public charging stations also make use of solar arrays to provide at least part of the power needed for charging electric vehicles. These have been the most logical examples of solar charging to date. Still, efforts toward creating the true solar car continue.

The latest example comes from Ford. Working in a collaborative project with long-time solar technology partner SunPower and Georgia Institute of Technology, Ford’s C-MAX Solar Energi Concept embraces an innovative approach that could potentially deliver the same amount of electrical power as plugging a C-MAX Energi PHEV into the electrical grid. The goal is no less than creating a logical stepping stone toward making a solar-powered hybrid feasible for daily use.

Ford’s C-MAX Solar Energi Concept benefits from amplifying the sunlight that enables the car’s already-efficient SunPower solar cells to create electricity. A huge jump in solar energy conversion is accomplished with a special solar concentrator lens that directs intense solar rays to the solar panels on the vehicle's roof. The off-vehicle solar concentrator uses a special Fresnel lens of the type originally invented for use in lighthouses, boosting the impact of sunlight by a factor of eight. Similar in concept to a magnifying glass, the patent-pending system tracks the sun as it moves from east to west.

With the aid of the concentrator, the system can collect enough energy from the sun each day to equal a four-hour battery charge for the C-MAX Energi, about 8 kilowatt-hours. Ford says this is sufficient to deliver the same performance as a conventional C-MAX Energi plugged into the electrical grid.  The Ford C-MAX Solar Energi Concept would also have the same total range as a conventional C-MAX Energi of up to 620 miles, including up to 21 electric-only miles. Since the sun isn't always shining, there is still a charge port so this solar Energi variant t can be charged conventionally from the grid.

The special solar concentrator carport used with the C-MAX Solar Energi is conceptualized in a way that maximizes capturing solar energy as the sun moves throughout the day. This requires an east-west carport orientation and also the ability for the car to autonomously move forward and backward beneath the canopy during daylight hours, thus enabling its solar cells to make the most of sunlight directed by the concentrator. As Consumer Reports posits, not only does this require buying into the concept of an unattended car moving all by itself during the day, but also the potential liability issues that could come with it.

Ford studies suggest that the sun could power up to 75 percent of all trips made by an average driver in a solar hybrid vehicle. Solar charging could be especially valuable in places where the electric grid is underdeveloped, unreliable, or expensive to use. In addition, use of a C-MAX Solar Energi could reduce yearly CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions from the average U.S. car owner by as much as four metric tons – the equivalent of what a U.S. home produces in four months. If all light-duty vehicles in the United States were to adopt Ford C-MAX Solar Energi Concept technology, annual greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by approximately 1 billion metric tons.

Next up: Ford and Georgia Tech will be testing the concept under real-world conditions. The outcome of those tests will help determine if the concept is feasible as a production vehicle.

 

 

For the eighth consecutive year, Green Car Journal is honoring environmental leadership in the automotive field with its annual Green Car of the Year award. The winner will be announced at the L.A. Auto Show.

This year’s finalists include the Dodge Dart Aero, Ford C-MAX, Ford Fusion, Mazda CX-5 SkyACTIV, and the Toyota Prius c. This ‘greenest’ field-of-five – representing not only the five finalists for the 2013 Green Car of the Year award but also Green Car Journal’s distinguished ‘Top 5 Green Cars for 2013’ – underscores the evolving auto industry’s increasing focus on efficiencies and tailpipe/CO2 emissions. It's also proof-positive that auto manufacturers are listening to the needs and desires of today's new car buyers. 

Green Car Journal has documented the 'greening' of the auto industry for over two decades, from a time of mere concepts and demonstration programs to today, when the number of environmentally positive production vehicles available to consumers is just short of amazing. And today it's not all about hybrids, which have become the de-facto answer to environmental progress in recent years. The answers being presented by major automakers encompass everything from a growing field of efficient gasoline-electric hybrids to high-efficiency gasoline and clean diesel vehicles, vehicles running on alternative fuels, and cars using plug-in electric drive.

This shift toward diverse 'green' vehicles is significant on many levels, providing excellent new car choices for buyers who want to drive cleaner and more efficiently while still experiencing the joy of driving. It’s also important to the imperatives of today, from reducing tailpipe and CO2 emissions to decreasing dependence on oil and thus enhancing our energy security.

The 'Top 5 Green Cars for 2013' illustrate the growing choices consumers have for going 'green.' The high mpg Dodge Dart Aero and Mazda CX-5 SkyACTIV show that conventionally-powered, internal combustion vehicles can indeed compete with the efficiencies of hybrids. Toyota's Prius c continues this automaker's tradition of offering all-new, high mpg hybrid models under the Prius name. The Ford C-MAX and Fusion illustrate how mainstream models can present drivers multiple high-efficiency choices – with the C-MAX offering both hybrid and plug-in hybrid iterations, and the Fusion offering these power options, plus fuel-efficient EcoBoost variants.

Importantly, all are affordable mass-market products that provide drivers full functionality and mainstream appeal, paving the way for making a difference in fuel use and overall emissions in daily driving. This availability is an important component of the Green Car of the Year program, since vehicles with great environmental credentials can only make a difference in decreasing CO2 and tailpipe emissions, reducing petroleum use, and improving overall environmental impact if they're available for new car buyers to purchase and drive.

The 2013 Green Car of the Year will be selected by a jury comprised of the nation's top environmental leaders, including Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune, Ocean Futures Society president Jean-Michel Cousteau, Natural Resources Defense Council president Frances Beinecke, and Global Green USA president Matt Petersen, plus Tonight Show host and auto enthusiast Jay Leno and Green Car Journal staff.

Which of these ‘Top 5 Green Cars for 2013’ will be selected as Green Car Journal’s 2013 Green Car of the Year? Stay tuned for news from the L.A. Auto Show on November 29,

 

Mitsubishi’s recently-unveiled Outlander plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is a first for this automaker, combining mainstream sport-utility appeal with advanced, plug-in hybrid efficiency. The Outlander PHEV promises drivers the flexibility of an affordable and spacious sport utility that can run in quiet, zero-emission electric mode for commuting, then turn around and handle weekend getaways for five with the cruising range of a conventional SUV. It builds upon the electric drive technology developed for the automaker’s all-electric i-MiEV.

The model’s all-new drivetrain includes a 2.0 liter gasoline engine-generator up front and 80 horsepower electric motors front and rear, with both motors connected to Mitsubishi’s Super All-Wheel Drive Control system. Motors are powered by a 12 kWh lithium-ion battery pack that can be charged in four hours with a conventional 240 volt charging sta­tion or just 30 minutes with a quick charger.

What’s most interesting about the Outlander PHEV is how it seamlessly combines smart fuel efficiency and utility. Mitsubishi offers Eco, Normal and Battery Charge driver selectable modes, which focus on maximizing EV time, normal driving, or having the gasoline engine function mainly as a generator to keep the battery charged.

Depending on the state of battery charge, drive mode, and conditions, the integrated management system will automatically choose electric-only, series hybrid, or parallel hybrid mode. In series mode the gasoline engine charges the battery and the vehicle runs on the electric motors, but in parallel mode, like normal hybrids, the gas engine powers the car directly with help from the electric motors. As with other hybrids and EV’s the Outlander generates electricity from both its electric motors during deceleration and regenerative braking.

This new plug-in crossover/SUV offers minimum fuel consumption without sacrificing the four-wheel drive stability or the same dimensions and large 72.6 cubic feet of space that current Outlander owners enjoy (36.2 sq. ft with second row seats up). Gas prices probably aren’t going to be $2.00 any time soon, and customers will always need room to grow. The Outlander PHEV combines real utility with real efficiency. It could be the change that SUVs need.

Based on the Japanese JC08 driving cycle, an electric-only range of 34 miles is estimated with 547 miles achieved on combined gas and electric power. Coming to Japan in early 2013, Outlander PHEV sales will expand to Europe and then the U.S. and else­where.

It’s interesting to chart the growing sales of hybrids and other clean vehicles today. What’s really enlightening, though, is to understand how these vehicles are being used and what their implications are for our driving future.

That’s where cutting-edge demonstration projects like Austin’s Pecan Street bring great value to urban and transportation planners, by providing a real-life example of how far we can take sustainable, low-, or no-carbon transportation and daily living with currently available technology.

Austin’s Pecan Street, Inc, the country's first non-profit research and development consortia focused on energy, wireless, and consumer electronics technology, recently joined with GM subsidiary OnStar to collect and analyze real-world energy consumption through driving and charging data patterns. Thanks to the GM/OnStar partnership, the Pecan Street project now includes the Chevy Volt for gaining critical real-life usage data for the use and charging of extended-range electric vehicles. Chevrolet made 100 Volts available for priority purchase to residents participating in the project last September.

Among the grid-relieving solutions developed by OnStar are charging with renewable energy, energy demand response, time-of-use-rates, and home energy management. The partnership with Pecan Street is enabling OnStar to test these smart grid services in realistic, everyday scenarios. Additional partner companies like Sony, Whirlpool, Oncor, and Intel are also providing residents with smart grid and clean energy products and services, such as photovoltaic panels for generating power, batteries to store energy, and smart grid tools to help make everything work in unison.

The final goal of the project is to help consumers make the best possible use of energy for daily life, and specifically for charging their plug-in hybrids and other electric vehicles. The hope is that research resulting from the project will help speed up the innovation cycle around smart grid and consumer electronics technology. This is important since electric vehicles add significantly to a home’s energy profile. Understanding how, and when, consumers use their electric vehicles and keep them charged is critical information.

 

The Lotus Evora 414E series hybrid that first saw the light of day at the 2010 Geneva Motor Show has now begun testing. This is a move important to proving the viability of its advanced powertrain and other high profile technologies in the Lotus portfolio.

Based on the slippery-looking production Lotus Evora model, the Evora 414E Hybrid is a plug-in hybrid with maximum performance built in. Two EVO electric motors drive the Evora 414E Hybrid’s rear wheels through an Xtrac transmission, providing an enormous 408 horsepower and 738 lb-ft torque. This considerable power-at-the-ready propels the car from 0 to 60 mph in about four seconds and to a top speed of 130 mph.

Primary power is supplied by batteries charged by electricity from the grid. Like the Chevy Volt and Fisker Karma, it uses a range extender engine-generator that produces on-board electricity to power the electric motors for driving beyond its 30 miles of battery electric range. The range extender can also charge the car’s battery pack and, under times of high power demand, supplement battery power for optimum acceleration. Further flexibility is realized by the range extender engine’s ability to run on gasoline, methanol, or ethanol.

The Evora 414E Hybrid brings an array of technologies to the table beyond hybrid power. Among these is a simulated paddle shift gear change function offering the familiar feel of quick gear changes reminiscent of a dual clutch transmission. Drive torque is modulated to simulate the physical feeling of gearshift changes and synthesized engine sound changes frequency with these virtual gear transitions. In addition, a driver can control deceleration through simulated downshifting, which induces varying levels of motor drag as the motors feed electrical energy back to the batteries through regenerative braking.

UK government funding through the Technology Strategy Board has enabled Lotus to also produce a cutaway Evora 414E to illustrate the car’s innovative technology. It was recently on display at the Goodwood Festival of Speed.